Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
